Brent crude traded at $102.83/bbl earlier today, on course to book a weekly gain as a flurry of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz — and outside it — kept risk premium firmly in the market. WTI changed hands at $90.33/bbl.

Both benchmarks sat slightly below their opening levels on the day but held above where they opened the week, according to market data cited in the report.

Why are prices rising despite diplomatic talk?

Reports citing President Trump as saying productive talks were being held with Iran failed to allay the concerns driving the benchmarks higher. Traders appear to be pricing shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz rather than the prospect of de-escalation.

The channel, through which a large share of seaborne crude and refined product moves, has seen tanker traffic fall to a two-month low, the report's headline notes.

Earlier this week, analysts from Kpler flagged developments in the tanker market, underscoring how freight and traffic data are becoming the key tells for crude pricing in this episode.

What is the watch item?

The margin to watch is the spread between diplomatic headlines and physical tanker traffic through Hormuz. Any confirmed resumption of normal transits — or an escalation in attacks beyond the strait — will set the direction for Brent's premium over $100/bbl.

• Brent: $102.83/bbl at time of writing, slightly down from opening
• WTI: $90.33/bbl, tracking Brent's weekly gain
• Hormuz tanker traffic: two-month low
• Trump, per reports: "productive talks" under way with Iran
• Kpler analysts weighed in on tanker flows earlier this week