U.S. propane exports averaged 2.1 million b/d in April 2026, the highest monthly level on record and the first time the monthly figure cleared the 2 million b/d threshold, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. First-half 2026 exports ran 11% above the same period in 2025, EIA analyst Josh Eiermann wrote in the agency's latest dispatch.

The jump rests on rising U.S. production — propane is a byproduct of natural gas processing and crude oil refining — and on a widening price gap between the U.S. and Asian benchmarks. Domestic output has climbed steadily for a decade as U.S. dry gas production expanded, leaving more barrels available at prices below Asia.

What is driving the record?

Two flows are doing the work. Petrochemical buyers in South Asia, and India in particular, are pulling cargoes that previously headed to other regions. At the same time, importers seeking alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern shipments have turned to U.S. supply. "Favorable prices for U.S. propane exports also outpaced competition in other regions," Eiermann noted.

April 2026 set the high-water mark at 2.1 million b/d. Since then, total propane exports have stayed well above the five-year average, even as the headline number has eased.

How has the China tariff changed trade flows?

Beijing imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. propane in February 2025. That rate spiked to 125% in April 2025 before settling back to 10% from May 2025 onward. The disruption is measurable: U.S. propane exports to China fell 28% for full-year 2025 versus 2024, and dropped another 19% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same six months of 2025.

The redirection has not been uniform. South Asian demand has absorbed a meaningful share of the cargoes that once cleared Chinese ports, but the loss of the China outlet is still visible in aggregate flows.

What bottlenecks are emerging?

Two constraints now sit on top of the export curve.

• Gulf Coast terminal capacity: Enterprise's expansion at the Houston Ship Channel and Nederland terminals is slated for completion in 2026 and will add 300,000 b/d of incremental loading capacity.
• Panama Canal transit: Ongoing drought and El Niño-related low water levels are limiting daily ship transits and raising the effective cost for propane cargoes that route through the canal.

Taken together, these two factors will determine how much more volume can leave U.S. docks before physical limits bind.

What is the watch item?

EIA flags the Enterprise Houston Ship Channel and Nederland project as the near-term swing factor. The 300,000 b/d addition will arrive just as South Asian petrochemical demand continues to pull barrels, but only if Panama Canal draft restrictions do not force longer voyages and erode the U.S. price advantage. Watch the startup window for the Enterprise expansion and the next round of monthly export data from EIA for confirmation that the 2 million b/d floor holds.