Brent Down 22% in Eight Days, Rebound Stalls Below 94.24

Brent crude fell 25.50 dollars, or 22.4%, in eight trading days, dropping from 113.726 on 31 October to 88.226 on Tuesday evening. The two-day rebound that followed has already stalled. Brent traded at 90.88 with the current candle still open, according to the ThinkMarkets technical note published on TradingView.

The sharpest single move came in the 4 November evening candle. It spanned 7.93 dollars and closed 7.41 below its open, against a recent average candle range of 1.86. It was by far the largest candle on the four-hour chart.

Why the rebound looks weak

From the 88.226 low, Brent recovered 5.28 dollars to a high of 93.509 on Wednesday evening. That fell short of the shallowest Fibonacci retracement (a technical level dividing a price move into percentages), the 23.6% line at 94.244. No four-hour candle has closed near it.

Thursday's second attempt peaked at 92.606, below the prior high. The descending trendline from the 113.726 peak has capped every rally since the top and falls by roughly 2.48 dollars a day. It passed near 92.19 at the current candle. Thursday's rally stalled almost exactly at that line.

The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact two days after the low. In plain terms, sellers still control the trend, and buyers have not yet reclaimed a single key level.

What levels matter on the way up?

The first resistance zone runs from 92.688 to 92.797, the area of the 5 November lows that broke on Monday. Wednesday's rebound briefly moved above it before closing back below. Thursday's high stopped just short.

The levels above, in order:

• 93.41 to 94.144 — the low of the large 4 November candle and Monday's rebound high
• 94.244 — the 23.6% retracement, the threshold for any credible recovery attempt
• 95.42 to 95.98 — the lows that held from Friday into Monday before giving way
• 97.967 — the 38.2% retracement
• 100 and 100.976 — the round number and the 50% retracement

What is underneath?

Support is thin. On 10 November, Brent tested the 88.226 to 88.698 zone three times, and the visible chart shows no trading below it. If that floor breaks, the nearest reference levels sit at 87.5 and then 85. The 4 November candle demonstrated how quickly price can travel through that area.

The relative strength index (a momentum gauge from 0 to 100) suggests selling pressure has eased. RSI fell to 18.93 on the evening of the large candle, spent most of the decline in oversold territory, and has since climbed to 40.61, back above its average of 35.48. Momentum could still shift in either direction while the candle remains open.

Which scenario does the chart favor?

The scenarios rest on four-hour closes. A close above 94.244 would clear both the 93.41-94.144 band and the first retracement, bringing 95.42 to 95.98 into focus, followed by 97.967. A close below 88.226 would break the only visible support and open the way to 87.5 and 85.

Between those triggers, Brent trades within a six-day range, with the trendline near 92.19 as the first hurdle for any move toward the upper level.

What is driving the price?

Fundamentals supplied the see-saw. Brent futures settled 1.39% higher at 92.76 dollars on Wednesday 11 November after Iran's security chief said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, as reported by FxWirePro on 12 November. Brent gave back those gains on Thursday, falling more than a dollar to 91.29 by 04:26 GMT.

FxWirePro attributed the reversal to easing Middle East tensions, which reduced the geopolitical risk premium, alongside rising OPEC+ output and growing US inventories, which fed oversupply concerns. The chart shows how little of the sell-off Brent has recovered since the war premium faded.

The watch item is the EIA's weekly petroleum inventories report. The Veterans Day holiday delayed it to Thursday at 12:00 US Eastern time, 17:00 UTC. After a week in which inventory builds helped drive prices lower, the release could prompt another test of the levels above.