Brent falls 8.6% as de-escalation expectations pressure crude prices

By Olivia Hart

Brent crude fell $8.94, or 8.6%, to $94.66 per barrel at 1:06 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, after touching its lowest level since Sept. 4. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $8.01, or 8.3%, to $88.08. Brent had traded near $118 on Friday.

What drove the 8.6% Brent decline?

The selloff followed trader expectations of an end to the Iran war, after the White House tied Tuesday’s midterm losses to the conflict. President Donald Trump told Fox News on Tuesday night: “I think it’s the gasoline price.” He was explaining the Republican defeat.

Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the war caused the losses. He added: “any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.” Trump also told the Financial Times that Washington had no immediate plans to strike Iran.

BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler said rising Middle East exports and Trump’s comments were keeping pressure on crude. He said Democratic control of Congress could tighten U.S. military spending in the region and bring a peace deal sooner. Enverus’ Carl Larry warned that an escalation in Iran could come before a resolution.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that U.S. hostility would persist whichever political party held power. The Houthis said they had targeted Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, although Saudi authorities did not confirm an attack.

Central Asia was facing mounting winter pressure, according to the supplied report. Repeated Iranian-backed strikes exposed weaknesses, but the report did not specify a country, operator, volume or date.

The reported market pricing favored an end to the war over further escalation.

What changed in the U.S.-Iran negotiations?

Qatari news outlet Al-Jadeed again reported significant progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. It made similar claims the previous day, suggesting Washington and Tehran had reached concessions on Iran’s nuclear program and frozen assets.

A senior Iranian official quickly dismissed the reports. Oil prices recovered some of their earlier losses afterward.

HFI Research posted on X on Nov. 4, 2026, saying that a Pakistani account and Al-Jadeed had not accepted that the midterms had ended. The source did not detail the Pakistani account’s claims.

Tehran had not confirmed the reported concessions, leaving the negotiation claim unsettled.

How tight were U.S. supply balances?

The broad selling overrode bullish supply data. U.S. crude inventories fell 900,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 30, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The total stood 4% below the five-year average.

Distillates, the middle-distillate fuels that include diesel and heating oil, dropped 3.6 million barrels. Their stock level ended 13% below the five-year average.

Vortexa said U.S. Gulf exports of crude, condensate (a dense liquid hydrocarbon) and petroleum products averaged 17.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in October. The volume fell from 18.9 million bpd in September and stood at roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.

EIA and Vortexa data showed tighter physical supply indicators even as benchmark prices fell.

What did the heating-oil reserve release do?

With diesel prices at record highs, the U.S. Energy Department said it would loan 300,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to four companies. The loan equaled nearly one-third of the stockpile.

The action followed pressure from senators in both parties after diesel prices surged above $6.50 per gallon. Heating-oil futures subsequently fell around 7%.

Washington was responding to fuel-market stress while the EIA data showed distillate inventories 13% below their five-year norm. The reserve loan addressed heating oil; it did not replace the missing distillate barrels.

In plain terms, heating-oil prices fell after the loan, while distillate supply remained tight.

What should the market watch next?

Confirmation from Washington and Tehran on the reported nuclear and frozen-asset concessions is the immediate watch item. The next Gulf export tally, EIA distillate balance and delivery of the 300,000-barrel reserve loan will show whether physical supply is loosening alongside lower crude prices.

Saudi authorities also have not confirmed the reported attack on King Khalid International Airport. For traders, the margin to watch is between political de-escalation and fuel availability.

In plain terms, watch diplomacy, exports, reserve deliveries and distillate stocks together.