Brent Slides to $100.60 as Traders Price In a U.S.-Iran Deal

Brent fell $3.04, or 2.9%, to $100.60 per barrel as of 9:40 a.m. ET Wednesday. The drop marked a third consecutive loss. WTI declined $2.86, or 3%, to $93.23, and Abu Dhabi's Murban crude slipped $1.27 to $100.90. Oil traders are pricing a U.S.-Iran settlement and discounting the threats surrounding it. Both crude benchmarks traded higher early in the session before reversing in volatile trade.

The sell-side bias held despite fresh escalation headlines and a large U.S. inventory draw. The takeaway: the market now treats geopolitics as negotiable and inventories as secondary.

Why did prices reverse?

President Trump told the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran. "We seem to be getting everything we want," he said. Vice President JD Vance said Monday that the two sides had "certainly made some progress."

A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its demands. Those demands include lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen assets.

Escalation headlines failed to hold prices up. Trump told Fox News a "heavy hit" on Iran remained possible. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz. That claim has not been independently confirmed. ING said markets have increasingly priced in further hostilities.

In short, both sides are signalling de-escalation while keeping the threat option open.

What does the midterm result change?

Democrats won both houses of Congress in Tuesday's midterms. Analysts said the result could constrain war funding. Kpler's Michelle Brouhard noted a practical constraint on that theory: the new Congress is not seated until January 3, leaving the administration nearly two months to act.

The election result matters for oil only through the appropriations calendar, not immediately.

How weak are the fundamentals?

Two analyst readouts frame the selling as flow-driven rather than supply-driven. Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva said profit-taking and reduced speculative long positions (bullish bets held by funds) were justified after October's rally.

JPMorgan estimated the global oil market's surplus at 1.4 million bpd in October, up from 1.1 million bpd in September. The bank said Middle East exports had recovered to about 20.7 million bpd from a March low of 9.8 million bpd. It also said demand had fallen 3.3 million bpd since the war began.

The numbers point to a looser balance, and traders acted on it.

Did inventories not matter?

The selling overrode a 5.27-million-barrel U.S. crude draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute. Analysts had expected a build. The figure is the latest sign that U.S. inventories keep falling.

The Energy Information Administration releases its official inventory figures at 10:30 a.m. ET. That print, plus any concrete U.S.-Iran negotiating detail, is the item to watch.