Brent Slides 1.7% to $90.99 as Trump Pauses New Iran Strikes

Brent crude futures fell 1.7% to $90.99 a barrel at 0759 GMT on Tuesday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 1.8% to $85.20. Both benchmarks extended losses of roughly 2% from the previous session, when Brent settled down 5.85% at its lowest level since August 31.

The slide follows remarks by US President Donald Trump, who downplayed the need for additional military action against Iran "at this point." His comments eased fears of sustained supply disruptions from the Middle East.

Trump said on Monday he plans to hold off on new strikes against Iran after appeals from countries in the region, including Qatar's prime minister in White House talks. He also plans to maintain a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint (the narrow sea lane carrying a large share of seaborne crude) for now, according to a Reuters interview and a later appearance in the White House press briefing room.

Why did the risk premium deflate?

Brent has retreated about 22% from its six-month high of $118, touched on October 30. The decline reflects easing fears that Trump might step up attacks on Iran following the US midterm elections. Concern over potential shipping disruption has not disappeared entirely, traders said.

"The market continues to prioritise President Trump's more conciliatory tone toward Iran since the midterms," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"While attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz are still occurring, they have not escalated in a way that has forced a fresh risk premium into the market," Waterer said.

Analyst commentary, not market fact, frames the floor debate.

"Despite the recent selloff, prices are unlikely to fall below $90 per barrel for Brent without more durable signs of de-escalation and a US-Iran deal," Gregory Brew, senior analyst with Eurasia Group, said in a note.

"At the same time, risks to shipping remain high, as Iran continues to attack vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz," Brew said.

The takeaway: two named analysts agree the selloff has limits while Hormuz shipping risk persists.

What is OPEC supply doing?

OPEC oil output rose in October, a Reuters survey found. Gains were led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. The increase came despite continued constraints on exports.

Higher supply from the producer group adds bearish pressure at the same moment geopolitical risk premiums are deflating. The combination of rising OPEC barrels and a pause in strikes explains the steep two-session decline in both benchmarks.

The takeaway: more barrels from three Gulf producers are arriving just as the war premium unwinds.

What comes next?

Russian and Ukrainian officials planned to meet on Tuesday for two days of US-brokered talks. These are their first negotiations since February. Trump suggested last week that a broad peace deal was possible in the 4-1/2-year-old war and could incorporate Europe's security.

A durable ceasefire would remove a second layer of geopolitical risk premium from crude prices, analysts note. For now, both developments remain diplomatic processes rather than signed agreements, and the market is pricing tone rather than treaties.

The watch items for trading desks: whether Brent holds the $90 floor Eurasia Group identified, whether attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, and whether the US-Iran naval blockade hardens or softens in coming weeks. OPEC's next output survey and the outcome of the Riyadh-Kyiv talks in progress will shape the next leg of the price move.