US Crude Stocks Rise 4.7 Million bbl; Refineries Run at 95.2%

US crude oil inventories rose 4.7 million bbl for the week ended Nov. 6, the US Energy Information Administration reported. The build puts commercial crude stocks — excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (the federal emergency stockpile) — at 414.4 million bbl. That sits 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.

The report landed a day late. The EIA delayed its usual Tuesday release because the federal government closed Wednesday, Nov. 11. The data is current through Nov. 6, so the numbers predate the shutdown disruption by nearly a week. Takeaway: crude is building, but from a base still leaner than seasonal norms.

What else built last week?

The build was not confined to crude. Every major category except none posted a gain.

• Gasoline inventories: up 1.8 million bbl, now 1% above the five-year average
• Distillate inventories: up 4.1 million bbl, still 8% below the five-year average
• Propane-propylene: up 100,000 bbl, 12% above the five-year average
• Total commercial petroleum inventories: up 11.4 million bbl for the week

The distillate number deserves attention. A 4.1-million-bbl build looks large, yet the category remains 8% below the five-year average. One week of builds has not cured the distillate deficit that has shadowed the market since autumn. Takeaway: stocks are rising broadly, but distillate is the category still running behind.

How hard are refineries running?

Refinery crude inputs averaged 17.0 million b/d, up 322,000 b/d from the prior week. Refineries operated at 95.2% of capacity. That is a high utilization rate for early November, and it explains the product builds — crude going in, gasoline and diesel coming out.

Gasoline production averaged 9.6 million b/d. Distillate output fell to 5.1 million b/d. So refiners pushed gasoline hard while distillate production slipped, even as stocks of both rose. Imports filled part of the gap.

Takeaway: high runs are converting crude builds into product builds, with distillate output drifting lower.

What do imports and demand show?

Crude imports increased 325,000 b/d to 6.7 million b/d. The four-week average of 6.3 million b/d runs 14% above the year-ago level. Gasoline imports averaged 202,000 b/d; distillate imports averaged 99,000 b/d.

Demand, measured as product supplied (a proxy for consumption), is mixed. Total product supplied over the past four weeks averaged 20.8 million b/d, up 0.9% year over year. But the components diverge.

• Gasoline product supplied: down 1.0% year over year to 8.7 million b/d
• Distillate product supplied: up 4.2% to 3.9 million b/d
• Jet fuel product supplied: up 1.8% year over year

Distillate and jet demand are growing while gasoline demand shrinks. That pattern fits a freight-and-flying recovery rather than a driving one, and it comes against a distillate stockpile still below seasonal norms. One strong week does not settle the question; the four-week averages smooth out single-week noise, but they lag turning points.

Takeaway: demand is growing modestly overall, with diesel and jet fuel doing the work while gasoline slips.

What to watch next

The watch items are clear. Watch whether the distillate deficit narrows further against that 8%-below-average mark, whether refiners can hold 95%-plus utilization into December turnarounds (planned maintenance shutdowns), and whether crude imports keep running 14% above year-ago levels. The delayed release also raises a scheduling question: if government closures recur, expect more displaced EIA data drops and thinner weekly visibility. The next report will show whether the crude build was a blip or the start of a seasonal run-up.